China-U.S. Opinion Tracker: Decoupling and Engagement; Cable Decoupling; U.S. Arms Industry
Sunday, June 18, 2023 Issue 3
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China-U.S. Relations
Janet Yellen | Yellen on US-China trade: ‘Decoupling would be a big mistake’. CNN. 2023-06-13.
Testifying (full video) before the House Financial Services Committee U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “While we surely have concerns that need to be addressed, decoupling would be a big mistake.” But she also thought “it’s appropriate, and in fact, essential, that we decouple from Chinese industries and entities that are actively participating in unthinkable human rights abuses.” However, serious analysts questioned the validity of the so-called evidence of human rights abuses against the Uygurs.
Mike Gallagher | Zombie Engagement With Beijing. Wall Street Journal. 2023-06-14.
Chairman of the House Select Committee on China Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) responded to Yellen’s objection on decoupling, blaming engagement for the China problem that the U.S. is perceiving.
Stephen Roach at Yale University disagreed with Gallagher. In his blog on Friday, Roach argued that it is oxymoronic, on the one hand, to try to assimilate China into the Western system, while on the other hand, arguing that “engagement invariably leads to appeasement in the face of foreign aggression.” He also said Gallagher’s idea ignored the achievement of the U.S. engagement with China in the early 1970s, which “anchored” the modern U.S.-China relationship.
Ray Dalio | Billionaire Ray Dalio Issues Warning About Rise Of China, Why He Thinks U.S. Is On The ‘Brink Of War’. Forbes. 2023-06-12.
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, talked about his LinkedIn post about China-U.S. relations published in April when he said the two countries were “on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk.” “it is important to realize that the United States is not united and the Biden administration is not in control of dealing with China because the US political decision-making system is fragmented,” Dalio said.
Graham Allison | Can two great powers cooperate to build a safer world? It has happened before. The Washington Post. 2023-06-14.
Graham Allison at Harvard University said, “Just because fundamental and irresolvable differences in values and interests compel the United States and China to be formidable rivals does not mean a hot war is a viable option.”
Technology Decoupling
Anna Gross, Alexandra Heal, Chris Campbell, Dan Clark, Ian Bott and Irene de la Torre Arenas | How the US is pushing China out of the internet’s plumbing. Financial Times. 2023-06-13.
This is a deep dive into the consequential cable decoupling between China and the U.S. that we should be aware of.
Cheng Li and Xiuye Zhao | Renewable energy should not be the next semiconductor in US-China competition. 2023-06-14,
Cheng Li from Brookings and Xiuye Zhao from the State Legislative Leaders Foundation (SLLF) said that “balancing renewable energy collaboration and strategic competition carries ramifications not only for bilateral relations but also for the global effort to combat climate change.”
Taiwan
Gerard DiPippo and Jude Blanchette | Sunk Costs: The Difficulty of Using Sanctions to Deter China in a Taiwan Crisis. CSIS. 2023-06-12.
Sanctions are not a silver bullet, argued Gerard DiPippo and Jude Blanchette from CSIS. For one reason, China will be prepared for it, and while sanctions could be a credible “general deterrent” in a military conflict, they are less useful as an “immediate deterrent.” For another, U.S. allies will probably be reluctant to fully cooperate in sanctioning China.
Developing or Developed Country
Philippe Benoit at Columbia University, Wang Li at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Ministry of Commerce discussed whether China is a developing country.
Philippe Benoit | China Is Developing and Developed at the Same Time. Foreign Policy. 2023-05-23.
Wang Li | China is a developing country despite US move. China Daily. 2023-04-18.
Middle East
Aaron David Miller and Steven Simon | Is Saudi-Israeli Normalization Worth It? Foreign Policy. 2023-06-05.
Aaron David Miller at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Steven Simon at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said, “In this new world, the strategic significance of a formal agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia is much diminished. An agreement would not materially change the military balance with Iran.” Meanwhile, it is unlikely that the U.S. could fulfill Saudi Arabia’s expectations.
Jonathan Panikoff | The US should pay close attention to Saudi Arabia’s domestic policy. Atlantic Council. 2023-06-07.
“It’s through this prism of inward focus, nonalignment, and a desire for minimal external influence that Blinken and other U.S. officials should seek to understand Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy,” Jonathan Panikoff at the Atlantic Council said.
Ukraine
Lawrence H. Summers, Philip Zelikow, and Robert B. Zoellick | The Other Counteroffensive to Save Ukraine. Foreign Affairs. 2023-06-15.
Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence Summers, former U.S. diplomat Philip Zelikow, and former U.S. Trade Representative Robert B. Zoellick advocated “a new European recovery program centered on Ukraine and funded by Russian assets.”
U.S. and Arms Industry
Ben Freeman | How weapons firms influence the Ukraine debate. Responsible Statecraft. 2023-06-01.
“‘Experts’ from defense industry-funded think tanks are flooding the media, pushing for more arms without disclosing their benefactors,” according to Ben Freeman at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and the Atlantic Council are sponsored by defense companies. Here are articles by their experts:
Stacie L. Pettyjohn and Hannah Dennis | The ‘Arsenal of Democracy’ Is in Peril. The Wall Street Journal. 2022-12-19. (Pettyjohn and Dennis are with CNAS.)
Eliot A. Cohen | It’s Not Enough for Ukraine to Win. Russia Has to Lose. The Atlantic. 2023-05-19. (Cohen is with CSIS.)
Giedrimas Jeglinskas and Viltaute Zarembaite | Restocking US and allies’ arsenals starts with getting industry involved at the NATO summit. Atlantic Council. 2023-06-08.
What Other Parts of the World Say
Jeremy Webb | Are human rights abuses of the Chinese judicial system worse than that of the land of the free? A difficult call. Pearls and Irritations. 2023-06-13.
Jeremy Webb at the Queensland University of Technology found “there is little to suggest an inherent moral ascendency” in the U.S.
Kishore Mahbubani | How Asia Keeps the Peace. Project Syndicate. 2023-06-12.
“ASEAN has been successful precisely because it has aimed to be as inclusive as possible,” said Kishore Mahbubani at the National University of Singapore. While the U.S. and Europe are seeking integration only with those like them, ASEAN values diversity in regional integration.
Felix Heiduk and Christian Wirth | The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the United States. SWP. 2023-06-12.
Felix Heiduk and Christian Writh at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) said that “it seems necessary to defuse the escalation of tensions between China and the United States and its allies by engaging a larger number of regional partners, preferably those who do not harbour ambitions for great power politics.”
AsiaIs and Chris Devonshire-Ellis | The Russian Rouble, Chinese Yuan, Gold, Crypto, Or Eurasian Altyn In Future EAEU Financial Transactions? Russia Briefing. 2023-06-08.
Chris Devonshire-Ellis, the founding partner of Dezan Shira & Associates, envisioned a “single means of payment” within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Ori Sela | China–Taiwan–United States: The Threat Triangle. The Institute for National Security Studies. 2023-06-12.
Ori Sela at Tel Aviv University said Israel should continue developing unofficial contacts in Taipei “to encourage trade, academic contacts, business and civic ties,” while promoting formal relations with Beijing.
Michael Keating | Why is America so reluctant to acknowledge China’s economic power? Pearls and Irritations. 2023-06-15.
“Australian planning needs to recognise that China is already the most powerful economy in the world, and that its relative power is likely to increase further,” former Secretary of the Departments of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Finance and Employment, and Industrial Relations Michael Keating said.
Book
Peter Turchin. (2023, June 13). End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. Penguin Press.
Peter Turchin with the Complexity Science Hub Vienna found elite overproduction and popular immiseration have been two major factors that led to previous political crises, and the U.S. is heading toward another turmoil.
Peter Turchin | America Is Headed Toward Collapse. The Atlantic. 2023-06-02.